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AAPL: Services, Vision Pro Growth Should Offset China Sales Concerns

 

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Revenues grew 2% from last year to $119.58 billion despite one less week in the quarter, above the $117.97 billion estimate. Earnings per share hit $2.18, also topping expectations for $2.11. China sales of $20.82 billion were below the $23.5 billion estimate.

Market research firm IDC said that although iPhone shipments in the quarter declined 2.1% year-over-year, for the full year, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) overtook Vivo to take first place as the top smartphone seller with a 17.3% market share. This was the first time Apple became the top seller in China.

On the conference call, CEO Tim Cook said the installed base (to buy services) is more than 2.2 billion active devices. The iPhone active installed base grew to a new all-time high, and the company had an all-time record number of iPhone upgraders during the quarter. Services grew 11.3% year-over-year to another new record:

A table with numbers and a number of phone services Description automatically generated with medium confidence

Widely-read TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, best known for gathering intelligence from his contacts in Apple’s Asian supply chain, reported that Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units. That correspondents to a decline of 15% year-on-year.

As a result, he expects iPhone 15 shipments to decline by 10% year-over-year in the first half of 2024 compared to iPhone 14 shipments in 2023. He expects the coming iPhone 16 series shipments to drop 15% year-over-year in the second half, compared to iPhone 15 series shipments in 2023.

He pointed to the new high-end mobile phone design paradigm that includes Generative AI and foldable phones. He doesn’t expect Apple to launch new iPhone models with those design changes until 2025 at the earliest.

Recommended Action: Buy AAPL.

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