Last week I reiterated that indices will maintain their gains by repeating the July action of breaking above the 100 DMA for a few days, pull back to kiss it it before rallying anew and completing another +17%-18% run from the low to rest at the 200DMA.
Whether indices extend their gains for a Santa Rally, depends on next week’s core PCE release as well as CPI (Dec. 13) and the Fed decision (Dec. 14). Next week’s release of the November jobs report will be important but not as crucial as CPI and PCE. Putting “what if” scenarios aside, we stick with the tactical frameworks shared with the WBG as of early November.
SPX Slides Nov-23-2022