Equities / Commodities: 12-Year Cycle Performance Outlook and Update
US500
-0.19%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position
Position added successfully to:
Please name your holdings portfolio
Type:
BUY
SELL
Date:
Amount:
Price
Point Value:
Leverage:
1:1
1:10
1:25
1:50
1:100
1:200
1:400
1:500
1:1000
Commission:
Create New Watchlist
Create
Create a new holdings portfolio
Add
Create
+ Add another position
Close
Who says cycles don’t exist? Today, we put cycles on full display by looking at the performance of two of the most important asset classes: Equities and Commodities.
The chart below takes a long-term “monthly” view of the performance ratio of the S&P 500 Index/Thomson Reuters Commodities Index.
As you can see, a couple of long-term trends have been in play over the past 25 years. Moreover, looks like cycles of 12 years a piece (Commodities lead, then S&P 500 leads).
Currently, a pennant pattern looks to be nearing completion at (1). The last time this pattern was in play, a long-term trend reversal took place.
Will equities continue to show strength and we see one more breakout or will equities wilt in the face of commodities and break down.
In my humble opinion, what happens at (1), could send a very important message about investment allocations. Stay tuned.
