Commodities Analysis & Opinion

Oil, Lead Us Lower……..

 

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Happy Thanksgiving Day, everyone. The market is closed today and closes early on Friday. The one chart giving me a big smile is crude oil, which is taking a nice, hard tumble:

Crude Oil Chart

Seen in a larger context, oil is approaching the all-too-brief lows we experienced earlier this week when the OPEC+ rumor was trotted out, and then denied, resulting in a crazy V-bottom. The recovery didn’t last, though, and my energy put options are going to be happy for the resumption of weakness.

Crude Oil Hourly Chart

The best representation I have of the ES recently is shown below, with key support at 3994. This chart does not reflect it, but in the few minutes since I took this screen shot, all the equity futures turned red, so we’ve got a decent shot of a failed bullish breakout here.

ES 15-Min Chart

I sure hope so, because what we must do is ruined the prospect of repeating what it did this summer when the failed bullish breakout turned into a resurrected bullish breakout.

NQ 4-Hr Chart

I have a pretty big amount of cash waiting to augment my existing 25 positions. In general, the past 41 days have been for the beleaguered equity bears (in spite of still being in, nominally, a bear market) so obviously I’m hoping to return to the good times Real Soon Now.

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