Factbox-Most brokerages stick by forecast of Fed rate cuts starting in June
The Federal Reserve Building stands in Washington April 3, 2012. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo
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(Reuters) – Most major brokerages stuck by their expectations that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates from June after the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged at its March 19-20 meeting and maintained its projection of three cuts this year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recent inflation readings had not changed the underlying story of slowly easing price pressures and affirmed that solid growth will continue.
Markets still expect the Fed to start lowering rates in June, as do top Wall Street banks.
Investors are currently pricing in a roughly 68% chance of a 25-basis-points (bps) cut in June, barely changed from the 67% just before the Fed decision, per the CME’s FedWatch tool.
Brokerages including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, BofA Global Research and Deutsche Bank maintained their expectations on the future trajectory of interest rates. UBS Global Research, meanwhile, changed its forecast for the first rate cut to June, from May. Here are the forecasts from major brokerages following the March meeting:
Brokerage First cut in Number of cuts Quantum (NASDAQ:QMCO) of cuts in Fed funds target
in 2024 2024 rate at end 2024
Goldman Sachs June (25 bps) 3 75 bps 4.625%
J.P. Morgan June (25 bps) 3 75 bps 4.50%-4.75%
BofA Global June 3
Research
Deutsche Bank June 100 bps 4.25%-4.50%
UBS Global June (25 bps) 3 75 bps 4.50%-4.75%
Wealth
Management *
UBS Global June (25 bps) 3 75 bps 4.50%-4.75%
Research *
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the March meeting:
Brokerages First cut in Number of cuts Quantum of cuts in Fed funds target
in 2024 2024 rate at end 2024
Goldman Sachs June (25 bps) 3 75 bps 4.625%
UBS Global June (25 bps) 3 75 bps 4.50%-4.75%
Wealth
Management
UBS Global May (25 bps)
Research
Morgan Stanley June (25 bps) 100 bps 4.38%
Wells Fargo June (25 bps) 100 bps 4.25%-4.50%
J.P. Morgan June (25 bps) 3 75 bps 4.50%-4.75%
BofA Global June 3
Research
Citigroup June 75 bps 4.6%
