Stock Markets Analysis & Opinion

Year of the Dragon: Will Vietnam ETF Breathe Fire?

 

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Along with China and Asian countries celebrating the Lunar New Year, the Vietnam market has been closed since February 8th.

The HOSE (Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange) opens again this Thursday the 15th.

Since 2024 began, the index VN is up around 6%.

The ETF we trade in the US, VNM, is up about the same amount.

However, the chart of VNM is range bound with a potential huge breakout on the horizon.VNM-Daily Chart

Looking at the chart more closely, VNM has cleared the 50-DMA and is in a recovery phase.

The January 6-month calendar range high sits just above the current price at 13.19.

The Leadership indicator shows VNM underperforming the SPY yet playing some catch-up.

The Real Motion indicator is sitting right on its 50-DMA, which means momentum is gaining but needs to do more to match the price.

I have been keen on this emerging market since 2023 started.

In that time, VNM traded up to over 15.00 and has since sold off into this area of huge support while trading rangebound.

Watch for VNM to clear the calendar range, and more importantly, to close the week out above 13.20.

ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY) 500 now the pivotal point-490 near-term support
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) the jan calendar range 201.50 must hold
  • Dow (DIA) 385 key support
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) 430 support
  • Regional banks (KRE) Back to the 45-50 range
  • Semiconductors (SMH) Support 196
  • Transportation (IYT 266 support
  • Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal -like this sector but has more to prove
  • Retail (XRT) The Jan calendar range high at 73 now cleared, now must hold

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