Oppenheimer: Market top may not develop until 2025
Oppenheimer: Market top may not develop until 2025
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Oppenheimer analysts said in a wide-ranging research note this week that a market top may not develop until 2025.
In the note, the brokerage and investment bank assessed the macro similarities to the 1987 to 1990 bull cycle that developed against central bank tightening.
“The takeaway is that the first Fed cut preceded the top in market breadth by 4 months and the top in the S&P 500 by 12 months,” said Oppenheimer analysts.
They explained that currently, the market is pricing in a 16% chance of a cut in May and 66% in June, and “assuming the Fed cuts its policy rate over the coming months, this means a market top may not develop until 2025.”
According to Oppenheimer, this would align with the median bull market duration (32 months) and the typical US Presidential cycle (tops often develop in the post-election year).
“Until then, we expect the bull cycle to continue,” they concluded.
